When You Wish for a Red Card on the River but you Just get a Bad Beat

An amazing poker hand between Zulkowitz and Somerville. Zulkowitz (A,A) wished for any red card on the river, against Somerville (Q, Q) – (Queen of Diamonds …

17 COMMENTS

  1. They don't factor in the fact that Doyle knows that Lex is known for making super thin calls so Doyle can then bet overpair or even jack's in that spot knowing that it looks bluffy but is actually value disguised as a bluff. I've seen veldhuis make these calls so you can be damn sure Doyle has too. It worked out for him this time but I'm not sure it was a great call in the long term and then makes him exploitable in certain spots in the future and unexploitable in others. Cause if you know veldhuis is willing to make these calls you can value bet a huge range that even goes as thin as 77 on a board like this,you're definitely going to bet sets and top top etc. Sounds crazy but betting top pair hands on super wet boards for value disguised as bluffs,but any that's my 2 cents but I'm pretty sure they didn't mention this option but then again my memories not great!

  2. if you guys actually saw this this whole season together, lexs call wasn't that hard, I think it was the last hour of play, and they were double straddling every hand, plus you should have seen the way galfond was playing the whole time, making big bluffs and hero calls the whole time. wasn't that crazy of a call, for how crazy this table was playing. come on, even dwan was there.

  3. Can't bluff a bluffer. Lex just never believes anyone has it. We see the hands he gets lucky on but you don't see all the times he stations and gets owned. He is just a calling station because he is a bluffer so he thinks everyone is bluffing all the time. I dare anyone to show me Lex making a great laydown. If he can make great thin calls but then also make great folds I will believe he is a high level player, but that is not the case, he's just a calling station bad player

  4. Betting big on the turn makes perfect sense for Doyle to do with his entire range. Just to put things in very general terms, whenever the PFR checks back the flop, a huge range advantage goes to the OOP preflop caller, so it makes a lot of sense to size up to accomplish two things 1) Make the pot as big as possible as often as possible to maximize on the range advantage, and 2) Increase the number of bluffs you can get away with having so that you can lead out with a larger percentage of air that would otherwise have to x/f.

    In this spot in particular, the board was already better for Doyle's range, so he should be blasting off. (As an irrelevant aside, Doyle's range advantage on this flop should force Lex to check back a high percentage of the time if he thinks Doyle's capable of leveraging that advantage with really light flop raises. The fact that Lex has to check back often means that he that he should be protecting his check back range with hands like KK+, so I pretty strongly disagree that Doyle's the most likely player to have a premium here. Sure, Doyle could as part of a mixed strategy l/c AA preflop like 1% of the time he's dealt that hand, but Lex should actually arguably play that hand that way 100% of the time.)

    Anyway, it could very well be that Doyle himself doesn't play this way, and his sizing is indicative of his hand rather than the favorability of his situation, and I'm not sure how I feel about the pot bet on the river (which seems like a bit of an equalizer, even though it still favors Doyle more than Lex), but his turn sizing shouldn't mean much about his hand if he's playing his range right.

  5. How deep are they? If they're deep enough, do you think Doyle could overbet river, like 2x to 3x, to make Lex fold anything but JJ and 5x? His own range is still polarized to JJ+, but it would make his range a lot topheavier (I think he can credibly rep JJ like that). If he knew Lex, and was thinking about his own range, he could discourage calls from 1 pair hands, that are pretty reasonable for all the reasons you mentioned. Granted, it's hard to actually balance that play, but I think in an optimal strategy (if there actually were such a thing), this should be in your repertoire.

  6. Think you guys are right that Doyle's bet sizing kills him here. Since Lex kinda looks like what he has, marginal SDV, don't think Doyle needs to polarize himself to get Lex off the hand. Think repping thin value works better because there are just so many more combos.

  7. Fishman folding aces was actually the right play also as he would have lost a huge pot! Its all pot limit pre flop so he couldnt get the guys out and someone flops trips plus if I am not mistaken that looks safe for aces

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